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(More customer reviews)This is a valuable overview of the politics and diplomacy around the 2008 Georgian-Russian war. Asmus argues that the war needs to be primarily understood not in terms of a local secessionist dispute, but rather in terms of the overall Russian-Western relationship, especially in the context of EU/NATO expansion and Kosovo's independence.
By the early 2000s Russia observed that many of its traditional satellites were moving towards the EU and NATO. Asmus argues that in response, Russia was increasingly drawn back towards a 19th century model, where a leading Great Power, such as Russia, was entitled to have a sphere of influence within which it could control major foreign policy issues.
By 2008, Georgia and Ukraine were requesting a Membership Action Plan ("MAP") to join NATO. Russia was strongly opposed to this. After much discussion, NATO declined to offer either country a MAP but instead stated that both countries would join NATO in the future. Asmus notes that this response clearly ignored Russia's true concern, which was of course around NATO membership, not MAPs. Russia seems to have been particularly vexed by its intended client Georgia's aggressively pro-Western stance and to have believed that there was now a limited time window in which it could act to prevent Georgian NATO membership.
Asmus also notes that Kosovo's independence in early 2008 amounted to a unilateral restructuring of Russia's client Serbia, without the consent of either Serbia or Russia. The West saw this as a reluctant necessity, in the face of ethnic cleansing and intransigence. But from Russia's perspective, the West's behavior around Kosovo was unilateral, bypassing the UN Security Council and breaking the established rules of the game. Asmus suggests that Russia thus felt both entitled and motivated to respond in kind.
Asmus then describes the growing tensions around Georgia's breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia and the final descent into war. Asmus argues that Russia appears to have been intent on launching a full scale invasion and that this can be demonstrated by a major Russian military build-up ahead of the conflict. As events unfolded, Georgia's President Saakashvili ordered Georgia's troops to the attack, but Asmus portrays this as occurring within the context of a premeditated Russian invasion, which had the aim of de facto Russian annexation of Georgia's secessionist regions and the overthrow of Saakashvili's pro-Western government.
French President Sarkozy successfully negotiated a cease fire, which preserved Tbilisi from invasion and allowed Saakashvili's government to survive, but which also allowed Russia to benefit from much of its gains. Asmus suggests that the US deliberately stood back from the negotiations to avoid having the situation escalate into a direct US-Russian confrontation and to force the EU to have a stake in resolving the situation. Asmus notes that Russia's actions have weakened Georgia, but he urges the West to continue supporting Georgia's democratization and European membership.
Overall this is an exceptionally thorough, well written, and nuanced analysis. (And of course I am only touching on that analysis in this short review.) Asmus had previously worked as a US diplomat on many of the underlying issues, such as NATO expansion. While there is some risk of bias, this gives him an exceptional background for analyzing the thorny context and for trying to explain how and why Russia, Georgia and the West behaved in the ways they did.
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The brief war between Russia and Georgia in August 2008 seemed to many like an unexpected shot out of the blue that was gone as quickly as it came. Former Assistant Deputy Secretary of State Ronald Asmus contends that it was a conflict that was prepared and planned for some time by Moscow, part of a broader strategy to send a message to the United States:that Russia is going to flex its muscle in thetwenty-first century. A Little War that Shook the World is a fascinating look at the breakdown of relations between Russia and the West, the decay and decline of the Western Alliance itself, and the fate of Eastern Europe in a time of economiccrisis.
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